2015 Baseball Predictions

Here are my predictions for the 2015 season. Last year I picked a Dodgers and Rangers World Series.  The Rangers finished in last place so, take these for what they are worth.

AL East

1. Toronto

2. Boston

3. Baltimore

4. New York

5. Tampa Bay

Man has the AL East gotten really weak I don’t like any of these teams but I have to pick someone I guess. I love the trade for Donaldson by the Blue Jays and think he makes a good lineup better.  My only question is will they get enough pitching.  The Stroman injury really hurts but I still think they can squeak it out.  The Red Sox tanked last year but I like a lot of the improvements they made in the offseason in adding an innings eater in Porcello and an underrated Wade Miley.  I don’t like the Panda signing in the long term but for this year it might work out.  The Orioles did it with mirrors last year and I just don’t see them getting all the breaks again.  But, Buck Showalter is a great manager who gets the most out of his talent. However, that pitching staff is very thin.  The Yankees finally got old.  Their starting five man rotation looks really bad.  The lineup is depending on guys who are on the wrong side of thirty.  Just don’t think it is in the cards for them this year.   The Rays may finally have run out of the magic.  With that said I can see a scenario where they compete for the division title.  The basic problem is we don’t know what they will get from Alex Cobb and Matt Moore two very good young pitchers who are coming off injuries.  The bullpen is not good either and I don’t know how they will score runs but this team often has defied the odds but I just don’t see it this year.

AL Central

1. Cleveland

2. Detroit

3. Chicago

4. Kansas City

5. Minnesota

I could see a scenario where any of the top four teams win this division.  It should be a close race all year.  The Indians need to get off to a good start.  They have finished strong the last two seasons but got off to such poor starts that it necessitated their good finishes.  I like their starting rotation with Kluber at the top.  Lineup is very balanced and with Francona’s leadership I think they squeak it out.  The Tigers could win this yet again.  However, I think they lost too much in the off season and will have a rougher time this year.  The rotation is still solid with Verlander and Price at the top.  The lineup can still mash but is getting a little long in the tooth.  What really scares me is their pen.  If they can solidify it they will be fine, if not then they could miss the playoffs all together. I like the moves the White Sox made in the off season.  However, they still have some holes at the back end of their rotation and getting the ball to Robertson.  I also wonder if Abreu can duplicate his rookie year.  And I know you can say this for all teams but if they get any injuries they really lack any sort of depth.  But if everything goes right they might sneak in there.  I have a hard time believing the Royals were as good as they were last year.   I know Shields was hittable in the post season but he is still a horse and they did not really replace him or Butler for that matter.  I think a lot of things went right for them and they will regress this season.  The Twins are coming, just not in 2015.  Byran Buxton looks like he might be a star in the making and their system as a whole is very good.  But for this year, a thin rotation and a very pedestrian lineup could spell doom.

AL West

1. Seattle

2. Los Angles

3. Oakland

4. Houston

5. Texas

Times have changed the west is clearly the best division in the American League. The Mariners missed the playoffs by one game last year.  I think they will use that as motivation to get them over the hump this year.  I love the Nelson Cruz and Seth Smith pickups.  The lineup finally should score some runs. When you have King Felix anchoring your staff you are in good hands.  After him you have solid starters and a nice pen.  The Angles got it to work last year and won the division only to get bounced in three games by the Royals in the post season.  I can’t say I understand the Kendrick deal but even with that loss they still have a pretty good offense and if Garret Richards comes back the rotation is solid.  They should get in with a wild card.  The A’s went for it last year and it did not work out as they lost the wild card game.  They then had to kind of gut the team that got them there.  So, it is hard to try to gage what they will do this year.  I still like their pitching staff but I really wonder how they are going to score runs.  That is why I have them third.  The Astros are on the cusp on contending. George Springer and Matt Dominguez lead a good young offense.  The pitching will eventually come around and I think by 2016 they will be a team to watch out for.  But for this year still it would be a stretch to think they will be above the breakeven point.  The Rangers might be in some trouble.  With Darvish out for the year it leaves a thin rotation even thinner.  I do not like the Gallardo move at all. In that park he will give up some long balls.  They still will score runs so, if they do get some pitching they might surprise me but I really doubt it.

NL East

1. Washington

2. Florida

3. New York

4. Atlanta

5. Philadelphia

This division was the easiest to pick of them all. The Nationals are clearly the class of the east.  That pitching staff is stupid good.  Any of their first three pitchers would be a number one starter on most teams.  Gio Gonzalez is their fourth starter for god’s sake.  This is an embarrassment of riches.  If they score any runs at all and stay moderately healthy they should cruise to a title.  I like what the Marlins did.  While I think the Stanton contract is ludicrous money and time wise, it will pay off in the beginning years of it.  This team has a pretty good pitching staff of their own headlined by Jose Fernandez.  A nice young nucleus of talent throughout their lineup as well, means they should be completive all year. The Mets are an interesting team.  If Matt Harvey comes back and is his old self they will have a formidable rotation.  The problem is they really lack any kind of offensive fire power and that should hold them back.  The Braves took a step back in my opinion.  I do not understand the Markakis signing at all.  Then you have Upton who has been a major bust since they signed him.  Their bullpen is solid but the rotation is just ok.  I think they struggle all year.  Poor Ryne Sandberg, he just has nothing to work with.  The Phillies have an aging roster and bad contracts all over the place.  Ryan Howard is officially done.  Chase Utley has just had too many injuries.  They should trade Hamels sooner rather than later and get some prospects for him. This team really needs an infusion of youth. 

NL Central

1. Pittsburgh

2. St. Louis

3. Chicago

4. Milwaukee

5. Cincinnati

I could make a case for any of the five teams to win this division.  With that said I think this is the year the Pirates take the crown.  They have a very young and balanced lineup with McCutchen leading the way.  Also nice young arms in Locke and Cole mixed with the veterans Liraiano and Burnett. This is a solid team.  There is just something about the Cardinals that doesn’t sit right with me.  I do not like their depth in the rotation at all.  If Wainwright breaks down they are toast.  Matt Holiday is not getting any younger and I am not sold on the Heyward move.  But still they are a good team and will be in the hunt in September. I am drinking the Kool Aid with the Cubs.  If they get the kind of pitching I think they can get they can contend this year.  Also, a very solid and underrated bullpen could be the secret weapon. The question is will the kids Soler and Bryant be able to carry them this year.  I don’t know but it could be a very interesting season.  The Brewers played over their heads all of 2014 and it caught up to them in September as they nose dived.  There is no way Lucroy has the year he had last year and the pitching is very thin.  They can still score runs but they are going to have to.  I am not sure what to make of the Reds.  I love Cueto at the top of the rotation but after that it gets thin.  They have a great closer in Chapman but getting the ball to him will be a challenge.  They do have some nice hitters but also have some serious holes in the lineup.  It is a tough division and someone has to finish last. 

NL West

1. Los Angeles

2. San Francisco

3. San Diego

4. Colorado

5. Arizona

The West looks pretty top heavy as the bottom two teams are really bad.  The Dodgers appear to be the team to beat in the division again.  When you have Kershaw and Greinke at the top of your rotation that is tough to beat. I like the Kendrick and Rollins moves and they still have Puig and Gonzalez.  This team looks to be pretty solid.  I worry about the carry over effects of the post season the Giants had.  For as amazing as Baumgartner was (and that was a performance for the ages) he pitched a lot of innings last year.  The rest of the rotation is very average unless Cain can make a comeback.  They did not replace Sandoval and his loss weakens their lineup in a big way.  Still, this team always finds a way to be completive.   The Padres made a ton of off season moves.  I like the Shields signing to anchor an already solid staff.  The Kemp and Upton moves I am not as big of a fan of.  Maybe it all works out for them but I just don’t buy it.  I am not as high on them as a lot of others are.  If everything goes right they could challenge for a playoff spot.  The Rockies are a bad baseball team.  And it is the same issue as it always is for them, not enough pitching.  I understand they have a unique situation with their home park.  But, you have to at least try to assemble some pitching.  Tulo and CarGo are still there for now, but if things go south they might be traded at the deadline and then they will really start to tank. The Diamondbacks might be the worst team in baseball.  Paul Goldschmidt is about the only player on that team.  Dave Stewart their GM thinks sabermetrics is overblown.  Ok, dude we will see when you put that AAA team you have assembled on the field.  A total mess top to bottom.  They have no idea what they are doing.

Post Season

AL

Los Angeles over Detroit

Cleveland over Toronto

Seattle over Los Angeles

Seattle over Cleveland

NL

Miami over St. Louis

Los Angeles over Pittsburgh

Washington over Miami

Washington over Los Angeles

World Series

Washington over Seattle