Nick's 2011 Baseball Predictions

Like I do before each approaching baseball season, I stick my neck out there and embarrass myself by making my baseball predictions. I know I am opening myself up to much ridicule come October, but I have fun making these predictions and have been doing so, since I was a kid. With that said, here goes.

American League

East

1. Boston

2. New York

3. Tampa Bay

4. Baltimore

5. Toronto

The East is probably the best division in baseball though I think sometimes it gets a tad overblown. I love what the Red Sox did in the off season. Adding Crawford and Gonzalez makes an already good lineup lethal. Rotation is good enough and in all honesty this team should win 100. The Yankees are still the Yankees but I really don’t like that rotation. A.J. Burnett is the number two starter and that is a problem. But, you know they will make a deal at some point to add an arm. But, I don’t know if it will be enough to get them in the playoffs. The Rays had to purge a lot of salary and with that a lot of talent. But, they still have a solid rotation. The bullpen is a mess and their lineup is going to be missing some thump. The Orioles had a drastic turnaround after Buck Showalter took over the team in August last year. It finally looks like some of that young pitching is starting to make some progress. They sprinkled in some veterans to mix with the youth and they might sneak into third if it gels. The Blue Jays are not a bad team, but are clearly re-building. I in no way think Bautista hits anywhere near 50 homers this season. They have some young talent but it may be a year or two before it starts to pay dividends on the major league roster.

Central

1. Minnesota

2. Chicago

3. Detroit

4. Cleveland

5. Kansas City

I think you could take the top three teams here and throw them in a hat. This division usually comes down to the last day or two of the season and I don’t see that changing in 2011. I have learned a lesson. Every year I pick against the Twins and every year they win the central. Well until someone dethrones them I am going with them. On paper there is a lot you could question. But, they seem to always find a way and if they get back Nathan and Morneau that will be huge. The White Sox are an enigma to me. I like a lot of parts but, I don’t like the bullpen and I think you can pitch to their lineup. Dunn will put up 40 homers but he strikes out an awful lot. But, they may have enough in the tank to catch the Twins. I like a lot of what the Tigers did, but you have to wonder about Cabrera. If he is back off the wagon then this team is not nearly as good. Rotation has the potential to be special and if it is they could win this thing. The Indians have some young talent. The problem is that they are very raw. I like the nucleus but, the pitching staff is green other than Carmona. I think they will score some runs but you don’t win in baseball if you can’t prevent them. There is at long last light at the end of the tunnel for the Royals. Five of the top twenty prospects in then game are in their farm system. When that young talent comes up this team could be another Tampa Bay. But, for this season they are going to be bad, real bad. With the loss of Grienke the rotation is in shambles. They have a lights out closer in Soria, who they should just trade as they should be thinking about 2012 and 13.

West

1. Oakland

2. Texas

3. Anaheim

4. Seattle

Before I pick this division, can I just state for the record how I hate the fact that the AL West only has four teams while the NL Central has six. That is just not fair. One of these years the A’s are going to get some offense and when they do they will win this division. I think maybe they do it this year. Their pitching staff is by far 1-12 the best in the west. I am a strong believer in pitching is what wins, but you have to wonder if they can score enough runs. The Rangers had pretty much everything go right last year and wound up in the series. I wonder about the hangover effect and their starting staff is just average. But, they can score runs so, they will be in this all year. The Angles are a curious bunch. I really need someone to try and explain why they would trade for a washed up Vernon Wells. They underachieved last year and I worry they weren’t very good to begin with. What is there to say about the Mariners, other then they will be bad? They do sport last year’s Cy Young winner and a future hall of famer. Other than that not a lot of talent on this roster and a lot of money tied up in some bad contracts. That is never a good thing.

National League

East

1. Philadelphia

2. Atlanta

3. Florida

4. Washington

5. New York

There are two good teams in the East and three mediocre. This is why the wild card is a farce. When you play an unbalanced schedule it is unfair to then award a playoff berth based on overall record, when one team may be in a much tougher and more competitive division. Anyway, it is very difficult to pick against the Phillies and that pitching staff. When you have four aces it is hard to argue they won’t be really tough to beat. However, the Utley injury scares me and they lost a big bat from the right side when Werth left. But, again with that pitching staff they should be able to hold off Atlanta. I like the Braves, maybe more than most people. I just don’t know if they have enough to keep up with Philadelphia. With Hudson proving he is back, they have a good balanced team that can beat you in a number of ways. Even if they don’t win the East they should repeat as wildcard champs. The Marlins are as always young. They have the potential to have a strong starting rotation, but both Johnson and Sanchez always seem to get hurt. If they can stay healthy they might surprise some people. I am not sure what the Nationals are doing. Giving 126 million to Jayson Werth is beyond insane. He does give them some credibility but they way overpaid. Despite losing for as long as they have their farm system is still not that plentiful. The Mets are a disaster. Sandy Alderson has taken over and he will get them back to contending before too long. He just has to wait out some horrendous contracts that finally start coming off the books after this year.

Central

1. Milwaukee

2. St. Louis

3. Cincinnati

4. Chicago

5. Houston

6. Pittsburgh

I have changed my mind about the central so many times, for one simple reason. I don’t know which team can stay healthy enough to win it. The Brewers on paper if healthy are my pick, but already Greinke got hurt playing basketball and Marcum has a shoulder problem. If they can get back on the field in a short manner with that lineup this team could be really good. The Cardinals lost a huge cog in Wainwright. I just don’t know how you replace a pitcher like that. I also worry that the Pujos contract situation will weigh on them as well. It almost seems like they have a black cloud over them this season. The Reds simply had everything go right last year. You look at that roster and you have to ask yourself is there anyone who didn’t have a career year. Votto is the real deal but, I am not sold on anyone else in their lineup and their pitching staff is nice but clearly lacks a true number one. Trust me they will rue the day they gave Dusty an extension. I would love to sit here and tell you the Cubs will finish higher than fourth but I must be impartial and I just don’t see it. If everything falls into place sure they will contend but they would need big years from a number of aging veterans and that usually does not happen. The Astros are clearly re-building but I have to ask with what? They simply don’t have enough major league talent in their system. I know they played very well after the break last season, but I just don’t see it. Could this be the year the Pirates at long last finish above .500? Sadly, I doubt it. It is more likely they lose 100 this year. They do have some young talent in Mccutchin and Pedro Alvarez. But, that pitching staff is a complete joke. When Paul Maholm is your opening day starter you have problems.

West

1. Colorado

2. Los Angeles

3. San Francisco

4. San Diego

5. Arizona

The West should be very competitive as any of the top three teams could win it. This may finally be the year the Rockies put it all together. They are a solid team in almost every aspect. They have a dangerous lineup and finally have some pitching to go with it. This team if it stays healthy could be very dangerous. The Dodgers are missing a bat, but that is just my opinion. I think the rotation and bullpen if Broxton bounces back will be fine. I just worry about Matt Kemp being interested and if they will score enough runs. Still, with their pitching I think they will be in it all year. The Giants got hot at the right time. I love the story, but does anyone think the Giants were the best team in baseball going into last season? I worry that a case of reality is about to set in. I also worry about all the innings their pitchers threw last season. It usually has a tendency to catch up with a team the following year. The Padres surprised everyone by contending all year. But, that was last year. Losing Adrian Gonzalez is huge, and I don’t know how they replace his production. They have a nice underrated pitching staff but, that lineup is bad. The Diamondbacks are rebuilding. They have at long last realized that strikeouts are bad. They do have a couple of nice players in Upton and Daniel Hudson. But, they are barren at many other spots and I am not sure Kirk Gibson is the guy you want to rebuild with.

Post Season

ALDS

Boston over Texas

Minnesota over Oakland

ALCS

Boston over Minnesota

NLDS

Atlanta over Colorado

Philadelphia over Milwaukee

NLCS

Philadelphia over Atlanta

World Series

Boston over Philadelphia

AL MVP – Adrian Gonzalez Bos.

AL Cy Young – Jon Lester Bos.

AL ROY – Tsuyoshi Nishioka Min.

AL MOY – Bob Geren Oak.

NL MVP – Troy Tulowitzski Col.

NL Cy Young – Roy Haladay Phi.

NL ROY – Freddie Freeman Atl.

NL MOY – Jim Tracy Col.