2009 Baseball Picks

Every year I do it and this year will be no different. So, here are my picks for the upcoming MLB season. Let’s see if I can make as big of a fool of myself as I did last year when I picked a Tigers – Mets series and neither team even made the post season.

AL East

1. Boston 99-63

2. New York 95-67

3. Tampa Bay 90-72

4. Toronto 79-83

5. Baltimore 65-97

The Red Sox have a pretty good mix of pitching and offense. That is usually a good combination. If Smoltz does anything for them it is a bonus. They are kind of being over looked this season with all the talk about the Yankees and Rays. (As much as the Red Sox could ever be overlooked.) The Yankees as usual were big spenders in the off season. However, I am not crazy about any of the big three signings. Sabathia has thrown a ton of innings and is not exactly in great shape. Burnett is always hurt and while I like Texiara they way over paid for him. The Rays put it all together last year for a pennant. I like this team of course, but I see a bit of a step back this season. The Blue Jays didn’t really do much in the off season to address their meager offense and come into the season with two arms already out for the year. The Orioles are still rebuilding. Some nice pieces in Markakis and Witers but they need to start producing some useable arms.

AL Central

1. Minnesota 91-71

2. Cleveland 88-74

3. Chicago 81-81

4. Detroit 77-85

5. Kansas City 75-87

The Twins against all logic are going to win this thing. I just have this gut feeling. Of course if Mauer is hurt then things can change. Still, I like the pitching and defense. Bats will need to score more than they did last season and I think they will. Indians are the sexy pick this year and they did have the best record in the division from June on. Still, I see way to many questions in that rotation behind Lee for my liking. When you are counting on Carl Pavano you are going to be in trouble. The White Sox are an enigma. They are getting old in the middle of the lineup with Thome, Konerko and Dye whose best years are all in the rearview mirror. Still, I like the kid at short a ton and think Quinton will be good (though I do think last year he was playing a tad over his head.) They could win this thing or finish dead last. You just never know. The Tigers were pathetic last year. They may still score some runs but I question if they can pitch at all. They have talent in Bonderman and Verlander. If those guys bounce back you never know. A lot of people are talking up the Royals. I guess I want to see it before I believe it. They have some interesting players but, I am not convinced they still aren’t a last place team.

AL West

1. Oakland 89-73

2. Los Angeles 88-74

3. Texas 75-87

4. Seattle 62-100

The A’s made a ton of moves this year to improve the team. A lot is going to depend on their young arms. In a division where I think Los Angeles really took a step back to the pack, I think the A’s put it together and win what looks to be a weak division. The Angels lost some major bop in Texiara and a world class closer. They are still dangerous but, there is something about this team that I just don’t like. They have a crowded outfield and an infield with no identity. This could be trouble. The Rangers have some light at the end of the tunnel. If they get any pitching at all they could sneak up on everyone and win it. They have some real talent coming up the pike, but it looks to be a year away. If they can keep the offense intact they will be dangerous in the years to come. The Mariners are a wreck. I really don’t get the Griffey signing other than for nostalgia reasons. He is going to be taking playing time from a prospect which at this point is not in the best interest for a team that looks on paper to lose 100.

NL East

1. New York 94-68

2. Philadelphia 90-72

3. Atlanta 82-80

4. Florida 79-83

5. Washington 61-101

The Mets on paper, and I stress on paper look good. Of course they looked good on paper the last two seasons only to pull a choke job the last two Septembers. The main problem was the bullpen and they seriously addressed that with the pickups of K-Rod and Putz. They have all the pieces now. The Phillies may have used up every ounce of good fortune last year. Still, they have talent and their pitching is still solid. They will be there all year. The Braves had a very tumultuous offseason. They addressed their rotation, but I still question the pen and if they have enough bats. The Marlins have some very good young raw talent. But, too many things would have to fall into place for the Fish to contend. The Nationals are a mess. With a crowded outfield and thin rotation that spells trouble. I do not understand the Dunn signing. They need arms not a 40 homer, 200 strikeout guy.

NL Central

1. Chicago 92-70

2. Houston 81-81

3. Milwaukee 80-82

4. Cincinnati 77-85

5. St. Louis 74-88

6. Pittsburgh 63-99

The Cubs I will concede may have taken a step back. Still, in this division they should still wind up on top. No one has properly explained that De Rosa trade. It made absolutely no sense. For a team that won 97 wins there may have been too much tinkering. The Astros will have a lineup where the opposing pitcher will have no room to breathe. The problem is that their rotation after Oswalt is brutal. Pitching wins and until Houston figures that out they will continue to be a .500 team. The Brewers will still pound the ball. But they have three guys playing out of position and a pitching staff that is in a word, suspect. The Reds are a lot of experts pick to be a surprise team. They have a nice core of young players. But, they have the wrong manager in Dusty and while I like the young talent they have assembled I think they are a year away. The Cardinals are in my mind fading. Yes, they have Pujos but beyond him there are a ton of question marks. They are going to need big years from some unproven guys and hope that the Kyle Loshe and Todd Wellmeyer’s of the world are really as good as they looked last year. The Pirates are still the Pirates. In trading Bay and Nady they went back to the drawing board yet again. This team needs to get a clue and quick. Another 100 loss season could be looming.

NL West

1. Los Angeles 93-69

2. San Francisco 85-77

3. Arizona 80-82

4. Colorado 79-83

5. San Diego 66-96

The Dodgers with Manny coming back are clearly the class of the west. This should be their division to lose with a lineup that looks loaded. The Giants have a stealer young pitching staff supplemented with Randy Johnson. If they can find any offense they could be decent. The Diamondbacks are another team that had a curious off season. In my mind they need bats so they add more pitching. If Upton and Drew step up they could challenge for a wild card. The Rockies made the tough but in my mind right decision in trading Holiday. Still, that is a big loss in the middle of their lineup. Strangely, I kind of like their pitching but too many question marks. The Padres still have two pretty good arms at the top in Peavy and Young. You have to wonder though how long they will be with the cash strapped team.

Post Season

AL

Boston over Oakland in 3

New York over Minnesota in 5

Boston over New York in 5

NL

Chicago over New York in 4

Los Angeles over Philadelphia in 5

Los Angeles over Chicago in 7

World Series

Boston over Los Angeles in 7

Awards

NL

MVP – Manny Ramirez

CY Young – Carlos Zambrano

ROY – Colby Rasmus

Manager of the year – Charlie Manuel

AL

MVP – Kevin Youklis

CY Young – Josh Beckett

ROY- Matt Wieters

Manager of the year – Ron Gardenhire