2016 Baseball Predictions

Here are my 2016 MLB predictions. 

AL East

1. Toronto

2. Boston

3. New York

4. Baltimore

5. Tampa Bay

Toronto – The Blue Jays made it all the way to the ALCS last year after having not been to the post season since 1993.  They look pretty solid this year as well. What is not to love about the Blue Jays offense?  With Joey Bats, a full year of Tulo, the reigning MVP Donaldson and Encarnacion all smacking the ball around they will score plenty of runs.  The pitching is another matter.  At the top Stroman and Marco Estrada appear to be fine.  The depth after those two is what worries me.  The pen is quietly underrated with Roberto Osuna set to close out the games.  They got a taste of the postseason last year and I think they head back again.

Boston – I kind of don’t want to pick the Red Sox to succeed because there is a lot about this team that I don’t like.  Kung Fu Panda is eating himself right out of the league and I for one think Hanley at first could be really bad.  But, they do have a lot of young talent ready to bust out.  Betts, Bradley, and Castillo could be the best outfield in the AL if they all play to their potential.  They also have to hope Big Papi has one more year of usefulness in him.  The rotation gets a tremendous boost in David Price.  Did they overpay for him, yes.  But they needed an ace at the top of the rotation and he fits the bill. After Price, they look for a bounce back from Porcello and hope Clay Buchholz can round back into form.  The pen looks to be really solid with Kimbrel, Carson Smith, and Uehera at the back end.  They need to get off to a good start as other than the 2013 World Series year, they have underachieved the last 5 seasons.

New York – Ah, the Yankees, you either love or like most people hate them.  Last year they found the fountain of youth and got some good years from some of their aging stars to make a run to the wild card.  This year however, you have to wonder if father time hasn’t caught up to them.  They are going to need solid years from, Beltran, Texeria, A-Rod, Gardner, and Ellsbury.  That is asking a lot.  Could it happen, sure, is it likely no.  For the first time in eons the farm system does look strong for the Bombers so maybe they get some help during the season.  The rotation is very suspect in my humble opinion as well.  Tanaka hasn’t been able to stay healthy.  Neither has Pineda.  CC is coming back from rehab and you have to wonder at his advanced age what he has left.  Maybe the kid Severino is the real deal, they are going to need him to be.  The bullpen is a humongous strength. If the Yankees have a lead after 6 they are going to be very tough to come back on.  With that said, I just don’t think they will get the same production from their veterans this year as they did last.

Baltimore – I think the Orioles will hit a bit but I also see a lot of solo home runs and a pitching staff that is very suspect.  The birds have power up and down the lineup. Manny Machado may be the best player no one talks about.  And when you have Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo and Chris Davis in your lineup you will hit the ball over the fence.  The issue to me is they have a lot of low .OBP guys.  I also must add the Chris Davis contract will come back to bite them in the ass.  They overpaid for a guy who while he does hit homers does little else and you have to wonder how long he will continue to hit for the power he has shown.  The rotation is going to be a huge question mark.  Which Chris Tillman are they going to get?  They better hope it is the 2014 version.  Gallardo wasn’t a bad pickup but you have to wonder about the millage on his arm.  After those two you have to really start looking hard.  Jimenez hasn’t been anything more than an average MLB pitcher at his best in the last five years.  I do like Britton closing games and think O’Day is a good setup man.  With Buck leading the way you never know maybe he hits all the right buttons and the O’s contend but I don’t see it happening.

Tampa Bay – For the Rays it is simple.  Will they score enough to be competitive?  The pitching on paper appears to be in good shape.  But, man that lineup is weak. Evan Longoria has regressed.  He is still a nice player but isn’t the stud he once was.  I am very suspect of the numbers Corey Dickerson will put up outside of Coors Field.  Kevin Kiermaier is an outstanding defender he can’t hit a lick. So, that means they are going to have to win a lot of close low scoring games, which they could do with their staff. Chris Archer has turned into an ace.  Jake Odorizzi has nasty stuff. They key is if Matt Moore can ever stay healthy and harness the tremendous potential he once showed.  Also, if they get anything from Alex Cobb that would be a huge bonus to the staff.  They have a good mix and match pen as well.  If they hit they will be a lot better then I think, but I just don’t see it happening.

AL Central

1. Kansas City

2. Detroit

3. Cleveland

4. Chicago

5. Minnesota

Kansas City – I am never picking against the Royals again until they prove they don’t deserve to be picked.  I will be honest, they have flaws, but their core is still pretty much intact from last year. Hosmer, Moustakes, Gordon, Cain and Perez is a solid nucleus. But after that the rest of the lineup is kind of dreadful. The rotation doesn’t exactly blow you away either. Yes, Ventura can be special.  But after him you look up and see Volquez, Ian Kennedy, Chris Young and Kris Medlin.  That is not exactly the 1971 Orioles out there. The strength of course of the team is their shutdown bullpen.  And it is still very good on paper even with Greg Holland injured. If they get a lead on you, chances are they hold it.  This is a team that the sum is better than its parts.  They play NL ball in the AL and they defy all analytical models.  They have a dolt in the dugout in Ned Yost but despite it all they win.  So, I will go with them even though I kind of don’t see it. But I have never seen it from this group so, that shows you what I know.

Detroit – The Tigers are an interesting team.  They fell flat on their ass last year after getting off to a torrid start.  Somehow Brad Ausmus kept his job and that is truly a head scratcher. With that said, I kind of like the Tigers and if everything falls into place they might compete for a playoff spot.  This team is very right handed so, it is going to need Victor Martinez to have a good year from the left side.  I think the Upton move was a good one and you put him in a lineup with Miggy, Kinsler, JD Martinez, and the aforementioned Victor Martinez they have the potential to score some runs. However like with Baltimore they need guys to get on base ahead of those dingers so, Anthony Gose needs to have a good year if indeed he hits at the top of the order.  The Jordan Zimmerman deal is another I like and if Verlander pitches like he did at the end of 2015 they have the makings of a decent rotation. Anibal Sanchez also needs to rebound from a down season.  The pen which has been a problem for what seems like forever got much better with K-Rod there to close games out.  The Tigers could finish first and they could finish last.  Something tells me this team is better this year and if they stay healthy which is a key as they don’t have a ton of depth, I think they give KC a run for their money.

Cleveland – For the Tribe the key is getting off to a good start.  The last couple of seasons they got off to brutal April’s and had to play catch-up the rest of the season. No one noticed but from August on they were the best team in the AL last year record wise.  The Indians are going to have issues at least on paper scorning runs.  Their outfield is in a word bad.  And when you are counting on Juan Uribe at 3^rd base to start that is a problem. They need Jason Kipnis to have another good year and Carlos Santana to bounce back and be healthy. Lindor looks like the real deal and the key to it all is having Michael Brantley get back sooner rather than later. As suspect as the bats are the rotation might be the best 1-5 in the AL.  Kluber at the front is an ace.  Carrasco and Salazar have nasty stuff. And with Bauer and Tomlin at the back end they look to be in great shape.  The pen is also solid with Cody Allen there at the end.  You have to wonder if at some point they trade from their strength in pitching and go get a bat. This team could be a sleeper if they hit at all.  But I just can’t pick them with the way they are assembled now.

Chicago – Are they going to hit better than they did last year, sure.  But then again how could they be worse?  Yes, the lineup is better, but is it going to score enough?  I see a lot of the same problems they had last year.  They have no OBP guys in their lineup and that is a problem. Frazier is a huge upgrade then again a rosin bag would be an upgrade at 3^rd base from what they got last year.  I like him, but you can pitch to the guy and changing leagues sometimes affects certain hitters.  Lowrie was a nice pickup but Austin Jackson is an out machine.  Jose Abreu is a special hitter but other than that a lot of just average to below average hitters.  The pitching staff is top heavy. Sale, is one of the best pitchers in the game.  Qunitana is one of the most underrated guys in all of baseball.  Rodon looks like he is the real deal so the top three looks great.  The bottom of the rotation is not very good and the White Sox have to hope Latos or Danks has a surprise season in them. The pen should be ok, though Robertson did blow a lot of saves last year in the second half. I like Robin Ventura.  I think he is nice guy and a good man.  But, is he a good field manager, I am not so sure.  The biggest issue to me with the Sox, (and yes I am a Cub fan but I don’t hate the Sox) is that they keep making the same mistakes.  In 2005 they hit the lottery with a number of mid level free agents (Dye, Everett, Hermanson, Iguchi, AJ).  I think they thought that they stumbled onto a secret winning formula.  But since then it really hasn’t worked.  They keep signing over the hill free agents and hoping to strike lightning twice.  In ten years since 2005 it really hasn’t worked. They have not developed a position player of any value since Ordonez.  And that is the biggest problem with them.

Minnesota – The Twins played way over their heads last year and were in the thick of the wild card race until the bitter end.  I just don’t see that happening again.  The good news is the Twins have a great farm system and should be ready to be competing for a division title as early as 2017. I just think they take one step back this year before moving  two forward next.  Joe Mauer is still here.  Miguel Sano is a beast in left.  But other than that it is a lot of replacement level bats throughout the lineup.  Byron Buxton is a major prospect who fizzled last year in his first call up.  The ceiling is still high so he might be someone to watch.  When Phil Hughes is looks to be your ace, you have issues. Ervin Santana is back for a full year but all in all this is a very pedestrian staff.  The bullpen has a chance to be special, but needs Glen Perkins to stay healthy.  If he does you can team him with Jepsen and you have a nice late inning tandem.  Paul Molitor worked some serious magic last year to get this team to play above .500.  I just don’t see it this year but their day is coming soon.

AL West

1. Texas

2. Houston

3. Oakland

4. Seattle

5. Anaheim

Texas – The Rangers have a nice young core to go with some veterans to make a nice balance.  The lineup still features Adrian Beltre who is entering his 18^th season yet is only 36.  He can still hit.  They will need another big season from Prince Fielder as well. Youth will be served in the form on Odor at 2^nd and Deshields in center.  I am not crazy about Ian Desmond in left but other than that they have a solid lineup.  A full year of Cole Hamels should benefit the pitching staff.  The key here is what they get if anything from Yu Darvish coming off a TJ surgery.  If he is even serviceable he makes the whole staff better.  It is a not a deep rotation but it is competent enough to keep this team in games.  The bullpen doesn’t have a lot of big names but does have talent.  Shawn Tolleson is the closer and he did notch 35 saves last year.  They have some arms in the pen that throw gas and that is always a good thing.  I have been flip flopping all off season between picking the Rangers or Houston to win the west.  It should go down to the wire but I like the Rangers in a squeaker.

2. Houston – The Astros arrived a year early and made into the playoffs in 2015.  So, big things are expected this season.  The lineup has some serious thump.  Correa is a stud at short.  Altuve, Springer, Rasmus, and a full season of Carlos Gomez looks like a solid lineup.  They do have some holes at first, DH and catcher however.  Dallas Keuchel leads the pitching staff and he showed last year that he can be an ace.  After him there is a pretty big drop off however.  Maybe Doug Fister has a solid year for them and that would be huge.  They made a trade for Ken Giles who is a good closer but maybe gave up a little too much for him.  Still the Astros have a deep farm system so, they can use that if needed to bolster the team should they need to in July.  This is a team that could win the division and should challenge for it all year.

3. Oakland – Everything that could go wrong did go wrong for the A’s last year.  But on paper and according to run differential they should have been better than they were. A lot of that can be traced to their record in one run games.  So, if they can at least be passable there they should in theory improve.  The problem is as always they have to build a team on the cheap.  With that said Billy Beane is the master of doing just that.  On offense they are going to need Josh Reddick to carry the load which while he is a fine hitter I am not sure he is capable of that.  Maybe Yonder Alonso cashes in on the potential he showed in the minors but he is on his 3^rd team so it is time to get going.  I do like the Kris Davis pickup as he gives the team some pop.  Sonny Gray is an excellent pitcher who should anchor this staff.  After Gray it really is a ton of question marks.  Rich Hill was brought in, while Hill was really good in the 9 starts he made last year, the issue is it was only 9 starts.  Jessie Hahn, and Chris Bassitt have potential so they might pitch better than advertised.   A full season from Sean Doolittle in the pen will surely help things as well.  I don’t understand the Ryan Madson pickup but then again Beane has made moves like this before that have surprised.  I kind of wanted to pick the A’s as one of my surprise teams and most don’t have them even finishing this high.  But the A’s have a history of surprising just when you count them out.  I don’t think they make the playoffs but I do think they will be better than last year.

4. Seattle – Last year at this time the Mariners were the darling pick to end their playoff drought. They missed out by one game in 2014 so it looked like they were on the verge of breaking through.  Instead they went out and laid an egg.  Maybe this year they get the ship back on course.  There are a lot of unknowns with this team.  It seems like for years the issue has been they haven’t really hit.  And on paper it looks like they still may have those issues.  Robinson Cano is very good but had a bad first half last season and needs to carry this offense for the whole year.  Seager at 3^rd is legit and I like the Adam Lind pickup.  The problem is they have no power what so ever in their outfield so, they will need Nelson Cruz to hit close to 40 again.  If he does they might be ok but that is a big if.  You worry that they have wasted the best years of King Felix.  He arguably had his worst season as a pro last year.  But he is still the King so maybe he finds his groove this season. After Hernandez there is a lot of filler and not much else in the rotation.  They are handing the 9^th inning to Steve Cishek who bombed last year in Florida and that is scary.  All in all I just don’t think the M’s will be able to sustain enough offense and the pitching isn’t good enough to cover up their lack of pop.

5. Anaheim – I don’t like the Angels as evidenced where I am picking them.  This is the team with the worst farm system in baseball and it has some major issues.  First the positive, Mike Trout is the best all around player in baseball whose first four years in the game stack up with anyone’s.   After that, there is a lot not to like.  The lineup is dependent on an aging and eroding Albert Pujos.  His contract might be the worst and most unmovable in baseball.  And it is not like they didn’t know this was coming when they signed him.  Albert at this point is basically a DH who is hurt all the time.  Trout is a stud but other than him the lineup leaves a lot to be desired. Simmons at short is a wizard with the glove but can’t hit.  Escobar at 3^rd might be ok and Calhoun in right has some pop.  Their leftfield situation is a joke.  Matt Szcur would start there for them.  On the mound, Garrett Richards if healthy is a quality arm.  After him it is very thin.  CJ Wilson is toast. Jerad Weaver tops the gun in the low 80’s right now.  Maybe Hector Santiago pitches more like he did in the first half then the second but that is a big if.  The pen is actually decent and Houston Street is a quality closer even if he is a tad long in the tooth. The worst part of the Halo’s is with the system as bad as it is, they really can’t go out and make a trade to improve their lot.  It could be a long year in southern California for the Angles.

NL East

1. Washington

2. New York

3. Florida

4. Philadelphia

5. Atlanta

1. Washington – Last year it was all lined up for the Nat’s to win the east and a then a funny thing happened.  They dealt with some injuries and infighting totally derailed them.  They also had Matt Williams there to run a sure thing into the ground like few others could.  They have brought in Dusty so a collapse is still a possibility but he does have some talent to work with.  The best player in the NL is Bryce Harper.  He is special.  If Rendon can bounce back and stay healthy he is also a damn fine hitter.  They will need Daniel Murphy to be at least competent and ether Ryan Zimmerman or Jason Werth to find the fountain of youth.  The pitching staff on paper is still pretty solid.  Max Scherzer has nasty stuff.  They still have Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez here as well. While both have had their ups and downs they aren’t that old and still have great stuff as well.  Joe Ross is a promising youngster.  The rotation has a chance to be pretty damn good with all those pieces.  Papelbon is the closer and while he is a complete whack job and a clubhouse cancer he can still be effective.  The rest of the pen sets up nice.  Something tells me the Nationals put it together and eek out the division over the Mets.   Yes Dusty in the dugout scares me but he usually implodes once he gets his team in the playoffs. 

2. New York – The Mets came out of nowhere and made an improbable run to the series.  This is a team that has loads of talent in the pitching staff.  But something tells me they won’t repeat it.  They brought back Cespedes and while I like him in no way do I think he puts up the numbers he put up in the 2^nd half last year.  Neil Walker is a nice pickup and a full year from Conforto in left will be a boost.  But, there are some weak spots in their lineup and it can be pitched to.  The rotation is obviously the strength of the Mets.  They have a great young staff lead by Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom.  The only thing that worries me with young pitching is will it break down?  These guys are strong and you can’t predict injuries but man they have a lot of power arms that need to stay healthy.  The pen has a good closer in Familia but last year the way to beat the Mets was to get to their middle relief which is still in my mind a question.  With all that said, this is a very talented club that should challenge for a playoff spot in the NL.

3. Miami – When your biggest offseason moves are a new manager and batting coach that is usually not a good thing.  The Marlins are a curious team.  They have some serious young talent.  But they also have some gaping holes.  This is a team that should have a better farm system but the well is actually kind of dry.  Giancarlo Stanton is the big stud in right field.  He has tremendous power. Yelich in left is a nice hitter and Dee Gordon won a batting title last year and is probably the best base stealer in the league.  Justin Bour at first quietly hit 23 bombs last year in only 129 games.  So, they might actually hit.  They need Marcell Ozuna to be a productive player in order to be consistent however.  The rotation is where there may be issues.  Jose Fernandez at the top is as good anyone in the game.  After him there is a steep drop off. Chen is nice but nothing more than an innings eater.  After him it is very young and green arms. Maybe someone breaks through, but the odds are long.  The pen isn’t much better.  A.J. Ramos is a competent closer but they are going to be depending on a lot of young arms. I like the Don Mattingly hire.  This team really needs some stability on the field. I don’t see them competing this year but they won’t be awful and they may play a lot of high scoring games on the days Fernandez doesn’t start.

4. Philadelphia – The Phillies will not be very good this year.  But at least they finally fired Ruben Amaro  and have embraced a rebuild.  They still have the corpse of Ryan Howard at first base.  But other than that they have some young talent coming up and made some shrewd trades in the last year.  Maikel Franco has a chance to be a pretty good hitter and should be the first player to build around.  The pitching staff is really bad.  Aaron Nola is slated to be their opening day starter.  After him it only gets worse.  The bullpen is also a junk pile. They traded away both Ken Giles and Papelbon last year and they got some good prospects for the future. However, for the here and now the pen looks to be a tire fire.  This rebuild will take some time but the Phillies at least have some light at the end of tunnel.  But the fans patience will be tested.

5. Atlanta – The Braves in my humble opinion will be the worst team in baseball.  However, they have made some nice trades and have gotten younger.  They are a couple of years away but they will be back. With that said, the team they are going to put on the field this year will be hot garbage. Freddie Freeman is still here.  He is a nice player. Ender Inciarte is a guy you can build around as well.  Nick Markakis makes a lot of money for not a lot of production.  Julio Teheran is a possible trade candidate come mid season.  He is a young cost controlled pitcher who while not overpowering isn’t bad.  After that the rest of the staff is weak.  Jason Grilli was an all star closer in Pittsburgh three years ago.  There are worse out there so at least if the Braves get a lead they might actually hold it.  Vizcaino is also a nice arm and gives the Braves pen a chance to be decent. It is going to be ugly but this is exactly what a rebuild looks like.

NL Central

1. Chicago

2. Pittsburgh

3. St. Louis

4. Cincinnati

5. Milwaukee

1. Chicago – Yes, I am drinking the Kool Aid and yes I am all in.  But there are reasons for this.  The Cubs are a deep, solid team with very few flaws.  And trust me, I am a Cub fan so, I tend to tread with caution.  But, this team has the look and feel of a champion.  The offense is crazy good.  1-8 there is no rest for the pitcher.  It is led of course by Rizzo and Bryant.  But the additions of Heyawrd and Zobrist help in the one area the lineup had issues with last year and that is strikeouts. This lineup will grind out at bats and get pitch counts up.  That forces the other team to dip into the middle relief corps and that is when the Cubs can really do some damage.  The starting five in my mind is in good shape.  Jake Arrietta is the reigning Cy Young champ.  He is filthy.  Jon Lester wasn’t bad last year and I think he will be better in 2016.  Jon Lackey was a nice pickup as a 3^rd starter and Hendricks and Hamel are fine at the back end.  The pen is deep and Maddon knows how to use the arms he has.  Hector Rondon is the closer and while some worry about him, other than a rough late May he was actually pretty damn good the rest of the season.  This team is deep and has the resources to go out and acquire an arm if need be at the deadline.  If I have to nitpick the defense in left isn’t great and if the rotation suffers injuries then they could be in some trouble, but you could say that for any team.  I’d worry about things a lot more if Joe Maddon weren’t running the ship but he is and I truly believe he helps this team stay focused. 

2. Pittsburgh – The Pirates have a very solid team that should challenge the Cubs all year.  With that said, I am not sure they are as good as they were last season.  Their outfield might be the best in all of baseball.  McCutchen, Marte, and Polanco are all really nice hitters and can go get the ball in the field.  In the infield they need Jung Ho Kang to come back and be healthy.  Josh Harrison slides over to 2^nd and they picked up Cub killer David Freese to play 3^rd.   This team should hit.  On the mound they still have Garret Cole and he only seems to get better each season.  After him it gets a tad dicey.  Francisco Lirano put together a solid season last year, so they have to hope he repeats it. They picked up Jonathan Niese from the Mets and they need him to be better than he was last year.  The back end has some question marks.  What does not have any question marks is the secret weapon of the Buc’s and that is their pen.  Mark Melancon was nearly perfect last year.  Tony Watson is a shut down lefty who usually pitches the 8^th.  If this team gets a lead on you that usually spells doom.  The Pirates have been jobbed the last two years as they made the playoffs only to go up against two aces in the wild card game and get shut out both times.  It isn’t fair but that is the baseball playoff system as it stands.  I think a 4^th straight one game wild card appearance is on the horizon.

3. St. Louis – The Cardinals are like herpes.  Just when you think that it is gone it flares up again.  On paper they don’t look that great.  But they always have this maddening ability to find some unknown 76^th round pick out of nowhere who comes up and plays lights out.  Or they sign some mediocre free agent who puts on that uniform and becomes an all star.  Then you have to hear that the reason for this is because the fans there are so great the players want to play their best for them and I swallow my own vomit.  Anyway,  they are dependent on a 36 year old Matt Holiday and the kids that they called up last year who hit their asses off in Stephen Piscotty and Randall Grichuk.  If those guys hit like they did last year they will be fine.  If not they could be in trouble.  Peralta is hurt and Molina is coming back from surgery on his thumb and they will need both at some point in the season I would think.  The pitching despite losing Lynn to injury and Lackey to the Cubs is still pretty good.  Getting Adam Wainright back will be huge. I think Carlos Martinez has some of the nastiest stuff in the game.  Michael Wacha might be falling back to earth however.  I am not a huge Mike Leake guy but watch him go off now that he is in St. Louis.  Rosethal is a great closer and Waldren and Siegrest are more than capable arms in the pen as well. On paper this is the 3^rd best team in the division.  They had no business winning 100 games last year.  They will still be good and will challenge for a playoff spot. But, maybe just maybe this is the year they at long last regress. One can only hope.

4. Cincinnati – The Reds are going to be bad.  They are in a rebuild but the thing is the pieces they were able to trade off they didn’t get a whole lot in return.  Joey Votto is still here and while his is still a surly ass he is also a tremendous hitter.  Jay Bruce is in right but he looks to be the next piece that will move.  For some reason Brandon Phillips turned down a trade to Washington which is a total head scratcher and really kind of burned the Reds, so they are stuck with him.  I like the Suarez kid at 3^rd and there are actually enough remnants remaining to at least think the Reds can score some runs, but not nearly enough to offset what they will give up.  The Reds started nothing but rookies on the mound  from August on.  Some of those kids looked good others did not.  Raisel Iglesias has great stuff.  Anthony DeScalfani showed flashes last year.  They brought back Alfredo Simon as an innings eater.  After that it is barren until Homer Bailey gets back.  The loss of Chapman really stings in that they not only lost him but got virtually nothing in return.  J.J Hoover steps into the closer role.  The rest of the pen is going to have to hope for some magic in some young and retread arms.  The Reds had a nice little run but my man Dusty fizzled it away and now they are left with scraps and look to be embracing a rebuild.  They have no chance this year and could trade the few viable pieces they do have come July.

5. Milwaukee – Mediocrity thy name is the Brewers. For the better part of two decades the Brewers were totally irrelevant in Wisconsin.  Then in 2008 they actually started to play good ball and had a nice little run with a couple of post season appearances. This got all the fair weather fans back in the park.  But dark times are back in the beer town and with it the crowds will go back to pre 2008 levels.  They are going to be really bad.  They have the non-juiced, oft injured Ryan Braun still, who is making too much money to move.  They need Jonathan Lucroy to at show he is healthy and then move him in July and get some prospects in return.  Other than those two this lineup is AAA material. Jimmy Nelson is an average MLB pitcher.  He is slated to be the Brewers opening day starter.  And yes, Matt Garza is still there for some reason to be a total D-bag in the clubhouse I guess.  Maybe Taylor Jungmann who showed some potential last year follows up on it.  The bullpen is hot garbage and that may be an insult to hot garbage. Combined saves from the bullpen last year from guys that are on the roster this year, 1.  Yikes.  I do think unlike the Reds the Brewers got some decent prospects and they totally fleeced Arizona in the Segura trade.  So, the rebuild has begun and at least they have something to show for their moves. 

NL West

1. San Francisco

2. Los Angeles

3. Arizona

4. San Diego

5. Colorado

1. San Francisco – The Giants winning the last 3 World Series in even years is a coincidence nothing more. With that said, they look to have a pretty stacked team heading into 2016. The bats are led by their catcher who is without a doubt the best in the game in Buster Posey.  The infield is in great shape, with Duffy, Crawford, Panik, and Belt.  Who are all home grown talents as well.  They signed Denard Span and if he is healthy could be a nice spark plug at the top of the lineup.  The pitching staff is led by the superhuman Madison Bumgarner.  They went out and signed Cueto and the Shark as well. I like the Cueto signing and think he makes a good number 2.  I am not as high on the Jeffo pickup.  He struggled bad last year but maybe going back to the NL helps him.  If they get anything out of Matt Cain look out this team could be lethal.  The pen sets up nicely with Sergio Romo setting up Casilla who saved 38 games last year.  The Giants are top to bottom a solid club that builds a team the right way.  This might be their best team yet which is truly scary.

2. Los Angeles – A lot of people love the Dodgers.  I am not one of them.  I think they took a step back and will sorely miss Zack Greinke. I also don’t get firing Mattingly and replacing him with Dave Roberts but I trust they know what they are doing.  A full year from Corey Seager at short should be a boost to the offense.  But I do have questions.  Puig was great but it feels like he has regressed.  Adrian Gonzalez still mashes the ball but he is getting up there in age. They need something out of Carl Crawford at least until Andre Either comes back.  They do boast one of the best if not the best pitcher in baseball in Clayton Kershaw.  He is on another planet.  After him the rotation is very thin.  Scott Kazmir is already hurt and they are going to have to depend on a lot of unknown quantities going into the season.  Kenley Jensen is pretty effective closer and they have some decent if somewhat unknown arms in the pen.  I could be wrong and the Dodgers could be better then I think.  But something tells me unless they get some pitching from an unlikely source other then Kershaw they might fall just short of the post season.

3. Arizona – The Diamondbacks were the darlings of the offseason having “won” the hot stove.  Well, I am not buying it at all.  Yes the Miller and Grienke moves were good but they overpaid for one guy and got fleeced acquiring the other.  This isn’t a bad team but it is a flawed one.  GM Dave Stewart and his continued stubborn ignorance of advanced metrics just boggles the mind.  The team has some talent in the lineup led by Paul Goldschmidt.  In my opinion he is the most underrated player in the game. Year in year out this guy puts up video game numbers and not a lot of people outside the baseball diehards know him.  A.J. Pollock put up a real nice year last season and appears to be legit.  Other than those two I do see some question marks. Will David Peralta and Wellington Castillo put up the same numbers they did last year? The rest of their infield is very suspect.  Right now they are planning to bat Jean Segura in the lead off position.  Last year his OBP was .285. That is Nefi like.  The rotation at the top is very good. Grieke is a top end pitcher who can anchor a staff.  Shelby Miller is a great number 2. If Patrick Corbin is healthy they have the makings of a pretty decent starting staff.  The issue is they lack depth so they need their starting 5 to make their starts.  Brad Ziegler holds down the 9^th inning and very capable.  They brought in Tyler Clippard to setup and along with Daniel Hudson form a pretty solid backend of the pen.  The D’Backs made some nice moves but man did they get fleeced in the Miller deal.  Maybe not this year but that deal is going to haunt them.  Could they compete for a playoff spot of course they could but I am not in love with the moves as much as many others are.

4. San Diego – The Padres went for it last year. And well, it just didn’t work out.  On paper it looked good but on the field the team just didn’t mesh.  So, they smartly started a rebuild.  One that is ongoing. I think the Padres will be the most active sellers this year, in particular if they get off to a bad start. Matt Kemp was brought in and stunk up the joint in the first half.  He came back in the second but it was too little too late.  Will Myers moves to first and it is beginning to look like this super prospect will be nothing more than an average major league hitter.  They are starting Melvin Upton and John Jay so, this could get ugly.  On the mound the Padres actually have a decent enough staff.  James Shields has thrown a lot of innings but wasn’t brutal last year.  Tyson Ross is one of the best young hurlers in the game.  Andrew Cashner while often hurt can be effective when he does pitch.  The backend is a bit rough but there is potential there.  The bullpen on the other hand could be a mess.  With the trade of Craig Kimbrel that left a huge hole in the 9^th inning.  They went out and signed the gas can Fernando Rodney to close. That may not work out.  The rest of the pen is not that great either.  So, this may be a team that blows some late leads and that is never a good thing.  The Padres went for it last year and it didn’t work out.  They smartly reassessed the situation and changed course.  There is nothing wrong with that. This year however doesn’t look to promising. 

5. Colorado – Do you know what the Rockies are doing, because I sure don’t?  This is a team that has had the same issues since their inception.  They hit like the ‘27 Yankees at home and like a minor league team on the road and they can’t pitch anywhere.  CarGo is still there for some reason.  He could be moved should the Rockies stumble out of the gate.  Charlie Blackmon is a nice piece and Nelson Arenado at 3^rd is one of the few hitters who doesn’t need Coors Field.  They stole DJ LeMaheiu from the Cubs and is another nice piece.  They have a kid at short in Trevor Story who could be the rookie of the year so there is some hope with the everyday lineup.  But the pitching staff is another story.  They might be better just throwing the Jugs machine out there. They are “led” by Jorge De La Rosa who would be a number five starter on most teams.  The rest of the staff is retreads and kids with limited potential.  The Rockies have always needed pitching, that train is never late.  They went out and traded for Jake McGee who is a good pitcher whose talents will be wasted on this team.  He is set to close.  Nice guy Jason Motte is also here but is already hurt.  Actually the pen might be ok if not spectacular.  But by May they might already be overworked.  The Rockies have after over twenty years as an organization, still not figured out how to win consistently in the thin air.  They have tried signing free agent pitchers and that blew up in their face.  They are going to have to start developing guys with stuff that won’t be as effected at Coors. Come up with a game plan already otherwise it is going to be the same old story.

Playoffs

AL Wildcard

Boston over Houston

ALDS

 Toronto over Texas

Kansas City over Boston

ALCS

Toronto over Kansas City

NL Wildcard

Pittsburgh over New York

NLDS

San Francisco over Washington

Chicago over Pittsburgh

NLCS

Chicago over San Francisco

World Series

Chicago (yes I am all in) over Toronto

Other predictions

AL

MVP – Lorenzo Cain KC

Cy Young – David Price Bos

ROY – Joey Gallo Tex

MOY – Bob Melvin Oak

First manager fired – Robin Ventura Chi

Biggest surprise team – Oakland

Biggest flop – Anaheim

NL

MVP – Bryce Harper Wash

Cy Young – Clayton Kershaw LA

ROY – Corey Seager LA

MOY – Bruce Bochy SF

First manager fired – Walt Weiss Col

Biggest surprise team – Miami

Biggest flop – Arizona