Nick's 2010 Baseball Picks

Every year as I have done since as l long as I can remember I embarrass myself by making predictions of the upcoming baseball season. To show you how much I know last year I picked a Dodgers and Red Sox World Series. Anyway, here goes nothing.

American League
East
1. Boston
2. New York
3. Tampa Bay
4. Baltimore
5. Toronto

This is a very different Red Sox team as they will count on pitching and defense to win games. They have more team speed then maybe ever in their history. I like the makeup of the club. The Yankees are the Yankees and they are a very solid squad. They don’t have many holes either and will be in the post season barring a rash of injuries. The Rays are a good ballclub and if they were in the central or west they would probably win it. But the two teams ahead of them are just too strong. The Orioles are at long last starting to show signs of life as their farm system is starting to produce. If some of that young pitching figures it out, they could be dangerous. The Blue Jays at long last traded Haladay and officially are in re-building mode. It may take awhile as there is a lack of talent on this roster.

Central
1. Chicago
2. Minnesota
3. Detroit
4. Cleveland
5. Kansas City

In what appears to be a division on the decline the White Sox should win this rather easily. Pitching wins and they have the best rotation by far. If they hit at all, they win it. The Twins have some talent but they no longer can rely on the dome field advantage. I think that hurts them. I don’t know what to make of the Tigers. I could see a scenario where they win it if the back end of their rotation holds up, but that is a very big if. The Indians are taking a step back but there is some talent on this roster. They are going to surprise people with their offense. However, their pitching will hold them back. The Royals are still the Royals. You have to wonder what they are thinking. Moves like signing Scott Podsednick just make you scratch your head.

West
1. Texas
2. Los Angeles
3. Seattle
4. Oakland

This in my mind is the weakest division in all of baseball. The Rangers have all the pieces in place to win this year. If their young pitching steps up they will do it. The Angles just lost too much in the off season and didn’t replace enough of their talent base. This could be a re-building year for them. The Mariners have a lot of nice pieces. But, the Lee injury scares me and any team batting Milton Bradley 4th is in trouble. The A’s once a model franchise are a mess. No money, no fan base and a farm system that looks dried up. And then they spent 10 million on Ben Sheets. Good luck with that.

National League

East
1. Philadelphia
2. Florida
3. Atlanta
4. New York
5. Washington

The Phillies are clearly the class of the east. The Haladay pickup makes an already very good team even better. They should win this going away. The Marlins have a lot of good young talent that may be ready to blossom. They have some good young arms. The Braves are a lot of people’s sexy pick to surprise this year, and they very may well do that. But, there is just something about this clubs makeup I don’t like. The Mets are a mess. I was tempted to put them behind Washington. Already the injury bug has hit them. The Nationals at long last have some talent coming up in their system. But it will be at least a year or two before it shows up in the standings.

Central
1. St. Louis
2. Chicago
3. Milwaukee
4. Cincinnati
5. Pittsburgh
6. Houston

It is hard to pick against the Cardinals. Still, I don’t think this is a perfect team. But, the front of the rotation and the middle of their lineup are very formidable. Everyone is writing off the Cubs. But, this team still has some talent. Everything that could go wrong did last year and they still won 83 games. The Brewers are going to score some runs, but as usual that pitching scares me and I don’t think Randy Wolf is the answer. A lot of people are talking up the Reds as possible contenders this year. Well, as long as they have Dusty in the dugout they aren’t going anywhere. The Pirates are still bad and this looks like the 17th season in a row of a sub .500 record. The Astros are a complete mess. I have no idea what they are doing and their farm system is one of the worst in baseball. They could be in for a long season.

West
1. Colorado
2. Los Angeles
3. San Francisco
4. Arizona
5. San Diego

The West has a bunch of teams that are pretty equal. The Rockies were the best team in the league from June on last year. A lot of talent on that roster and they will win their first division crown. The Dodgers are being picked by most people and I get it, but something about this team scares me. Manny is starting to act like the Manny in Boston and you wonder if they can survive that. The Giants pitching is strong but their offense is pretty weak. Maybe if they score some runs they will sneak in there. The Diamondbacks are a difficult team to gage. A lot depends on Webb’s health. Something tells me it is going to take him a year to round back to form. The Padres are collecting a lot of good young ball players. They will be back in contention by 2012, but this year won’t be very good.

Post Season
AL
Boston over Chicago
New York over Texas
Boston over New York

NL
Philadelphia over Chicago
Colorado over St. Louis
Philadelphia over Colorado

World Series
Philadelphia over Boston

Awards
AL
MVP – Mark Texiara
Cy Young – Felix Hernandez
Rookie of the Year – Neftali Feliz
Manager of the year – Ron Washington

NL
MVP – Chase Utley
Cy Young – Roy Haladay
Rookie of the year – Alcides Escobar
Manager of the Year – Lou Piniella

When Bands Jumped the Shark

I realize the term jumping the shark has itself jumped the shark. With that said here are 10 once great bands and were I feel they “jumped the shark.” Also again, this is my personal opinion. No one has to agree but, by all means please let me know where you feel I am wrong.

AC/DC – Flick of the Switch – I am more of a Bon Scott AC/DC guy then a Brian Johnson. Still Back in Black was an achievement and may be the best album from the band. They followed that up with For Those About to Rock which is a very uneven record but has its moments. Flick of the Switch, simply is bad. They have not been the same band since. Sure Razors Edge might be called a comeback by some but other than Thunderstruck (Which I have to admit is a jam) the record is weak. I will vehemently defend this bands work prior to Flick of the Switch, but it is hard to listen to anything they have put out in the last seventeen years.

Genesis – Invisible Touch – Oh how I hate this record. The Peter Gabriel era Genesis was experimental and groundbreaking. After Gabriel left they still put out some good records without him. I will defend Duke and Abacab to anyone. With their self titled Genesis release in 1983 a fin started to show. Then came the poppy Invisible Touch and Phil Collins had officially taken over the controls and ran the band right into the ground. The record was huge at the time, but I ask now, is there one song on that album that you would ever want to hear again? I mean when was the last time you wanted to jam to Land of Confusion? From that record on whenever the three remaining members of Genesis got together to put out new music it was beyond awful. Need I remind anyone of, I Can’t Dance?

Billy Joel – An Innocent Man – I sometimes get some strange looks when I admit to my appreciation for early Billy Joel works. Some of the music he put out in the late 70’s is some of my favorite from the entire era. I listen to Rosalinda’s Eyes and it is such a beautiful song that I cannot believe this is the same guy that also penned Uptown Girl. With An Innocent Man he didn’t jump the shark he was shot out of a cannon over it. It is so bad that it almost makes me forget how good his earlier stuff is. From that time on it was just more and more uninspired junk for Joel culminating with the wretched, Storm Front record with the spawn of Satan single, We Didn’t Start the Fire.

Pearl Jam – Vs. – I believe it was my brother who first had a copy of Pearl Jam’s Ten. When I first heard it, I was hooked. I still all these years later will defend it. However, I cannot begin to describe the utter disappointment when I first heard Vs. I still cringe when I hear Daughter or Glorified G. What a colossal drop from one album to the next. After Vs. Pearl Jam continued to put out for the most part bad music. It is sad because, when I think about Ten and how excited I was over it and to see where they went it is heartbreaking. There are people out there that still believe that Pearl Jam was a better band then Nirvana. I have no idea what they are listening to.

Red Hot Chili Peppers – Californication – Around 1989 and 90 you could not find a bigger fan of the Peppers then yours truly. Whenever I hear anything off of Mother’s Milk an instant smile comes across my face and it reminds of a simpler time when music really mattered to me. That CD was the soundtrack to my life at that time. They then released Blood, Sugar, Sex, Magik and the rest of the world caught on to the infectious grove of this fun loving LA band. A lot of hard core fans of the RHCP, panned their next record One Hot Minute with Dave Navarro. I actually like it and still do. It’s not on the level of Mother’s Milk but it is still in my opinion solid. Californication should have been great. John Frusicante was back on guitar. When I heard that I got really excited. I went out and bought the disc the first day it came out. And, man was I disappointed. The band that once infused the amazing Flea on bass with a funk and rock sound was producing basically adult contemporary music. The edge was gone, there was no heart in that album. Since then it has been more of the same. It is too bad because at their peak they were amazing.

REM – Out of Time – I think my brother said it best when he first heard Losing my Religion. Upon listening to it for the first time, he said, “It was like finding out there was no Santa Claus.” For a five year stretch beginning in 1983 with Murmur there may have no band that was putting out better music then the boys from Georgia. Green was their last good effort and even on that you could in retrospect see the slippage. Out of Time was so crushing in its suckiness. Here was the band that was championed by alternative radio and they put out a song like Shiny Happy People. From there REM put out an even worse record in Automatic for the People and I tuned out. How quickly they fell from the mighty perch they once held.

Rolling Stones – Emotional Rescue – The Rolling Stones greatness is unquestioned. No music lover in their right mind would try to argue about what this band has meant and their impact as musicians. However since 1980 this band has put out a lot of bad music. The band was starting to slip before that. Some Girls was looked upon as a comeback record. Their release prior to that, Black and Blue was pure rubbish. But it looked like the ship had been righted as Some Girls boasted some of the best work by then band in years. Then they released this turkey and it has been all downhill ever since. (Don’t believe me put on Dirty Work one day. It is embarrassing in how bad it is.)

Bruce Springsteen – Born in the USA – Oh how I despise this album. Bruce’s first six studio releases are so highly listenable. His lyrics are so punch in the gut good and the arrangement of the E street band is almost perfection, which makes Born in the USA all the more disappointing. It is by far his biggest selling album which I think says a lot about the American music buying public. From the schmaltzy Glory Days and My Hometown to the disgusting Dancing in the Dark, the record reeks of pandering to mainstream. This is not out of hand a bad thing, but in this case, it sure is. It was a turn that Bruce made, one he never recovered from.

U2 - The Joshua Tree – How I used to love this band. I would always defend them to my heavy metal loving Argo classmates. I would often get ridiculed for digging U2 but, I didn’t care. I knew good music when I heard it. Man was this band something in the early 80’s. Their first four records all brilliant. Then they released the Joshua Tree. I went out and bought it as I was excited upon its release and I admit at the time I tried really hard to like it. But at a certain point (probably upon my 10,000 time hearing I still haven’t found what I’m looking for) it dawned on me that, in fact this album is pretty weak. Then came Rattle and Hum and the band was dead to me. It took me years to forgive their transgressions and open up my mind to their later work some of which isn’t half bad. But, in my mind they were never as good as they were pre-Joshua Tree.

Van Halen – 5150 – David Lee Roth era Van Halen is American hard rock done right. It is in your face, tongue in cheek, balls to the walls rock and roll. 1984 was probably their weakest Roth era effort but still had enough good in it to buy them some slack. When it was announced that Sammy Hagar was replacing Roth it made so much sense. It should have been perfect. Instead, the band devolved into as I like to call them the Journey of hard rock. When I hear Dreams or Love Comes Walking In, I get visibly pissed. It is one thing to suck. It is quite another to have talent and then piss it away playing the most inane, soft, soulless banality possible. I can forgive a Brian Adams he always sucked. But you knew the Halen boys had it in them and they just took the easy way out. Shame on them.
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Near Death

As I get older, I think about mortality a lot more then when I was in my teens and 20’s. Not that I am obsessing about it, but you can’t help but think about it. I would bet everyone at some point in their life has had a moment where they are driving along in their car and you come two seconds away from a horrific accident. I have had three such experiences. And let me tell you that is three to many. Here they are.

Rodney Long saved my life – Back in the late 80’s before I had a drivers license, Chris Dusza became me and my posse’s ride. After awhile Dusza met his girlfriend and spent all of his time with her so, we needed to find another friend with a license and access to a car. That is when Mike Dell came into the picture. He had access to his mom’s Chevy Impala and I have waxed poetic about that car in this post, http://10withamop.blogspot.com/2006/11/long-may-you-run.html#comments

At a certain point another Argo student, Rodney joined our ever expanding circle of friends. He had access to a Blue Chevy pickup truck. This was good as we were usually testing the limits of human capacity in Dell’s Impala. It was nice in that we could now split the group up even though at most you could only fit about two passengers in the front of Rodney’s truck.

I don’t know where we were going on the night of this story. I don’t remember who was in whose car. All I do remember was that I was in Rodney’s truck and we were following behind Dell. We were sitting at a traffic light in the left hand turn lane to make a left on 95th street looking to turn onto 88th avenue. Now, those who know that intersection know that 88th avenue is one lane going in each direction. This little detail plays an important part in this story.

At the time there was a gas station on that corner. Rodney’s truck was third at the light, Dell was second and there was a car in front of him. We got the arrow, and we all started to go. The car in front of Dell for some reason after making the left onto 88th avenue immediately comes to a complete stop as it attempts to turn right into the gas station. Dell notices this at the last minute and slams on his brakes just missing hitting the car in front of him.

So, as Rodney turns the truck all we see are Dell’s brake lights as the Impala is at a complete stop. Rodney has two choices. Slam into Dell’s bumper or swerve to the left crossing over onto the oncoming traffic lane. I was riding bitch in the passenger’s seat. Of course being all of 17 I was fearless and not wearing a seat belt. Rodney swerved his truck at the last possible moment missing Dell’s rear bumper by two inches at the most. If there had been a car in the oncoming lane we would have hit it. But by some miracle there wasn’t. If Rodney’s reflexes been a little slower, we have for sure hit Dell’s car at a pretty good speed. Being where I was sitting I would have gotten the worst of it and would have definitely at the very least cracked my head open on the windshield.

But, thankfully none of that happened. Rodney swerved out of the way, and we escaped without a hair on our heads being hurt. After the near accident Dell and Rodney pulled to the side of the road as we were all a tad shaken. You would think that incident would have led me to start wearing a seat belt. But, it would be years before I would take up the practice on a regular basis.

A Ford Mustang and snow, a bad combination – This was 1990. I know this because I was still at Moraine Valley and so was my brother. My Brother didn’t start Moraine until 89-90. The previous evening it had snowed pretty badly. At the time I was driving a 1982 Buick Skylark. It was on older car that had well over 120,000 miles on it. The brakes sucked on it and it handled about as well as a riding lawn mower.

The next morning after the snowstorm the roads were still pretty bad. They were so bad in fact that my Mom decided she was going to stay home from work rather than risk the drive. Why my brother and I decided we needed to get to class at Moraine that day I have no idea. But, we both made decision to go. I would give my brother a ride to school on most mornings as we had classes that started at the same time. As we were heading out the door, my Mom suggested that instead of taking my Skylark, I could take her 85 Cutlass.

The green Cutlass wasn’t new but it sure drove like it. My Mom took it to work every day and that was about it. It hardly had any miles on it even though it was 5 years old. It drove like new and handled much better than my beat up Skylark. That little gesture may have saved both me and Vince.

For some reason, instead of taking the safer yet slower route of Kean Ave, to Moraine I chose to take La Grange Road. Not sure why I did this, but I did. I merged onto La Grange and it was moving slow. The roads were still very slick and top speed you could reasonably get to was at most 20 and that was pushing it. The traffic was crawling. We caught the light at 87th and La Grange and we were the first car in the left hand lane. There was a car to the right of me and a new Ford Mustang sitting behind that car.

The Mustang along with the Chevy Camaro might be the two worst cars to drive in a snow storm. The engines are way too big for their bodies and all the power goes to the left rear wheel. The light turns green. The car to the right of me gets a little ahead off the line but not by much. The Mustang then decides that screw the conditions, I am in a hurry. He is going to try to pass my car and switch lanes ahead of me on the left.

I am seeing this go down in my rear view mirror and I can almost sense what is about to happen next. As sure as shit, as soon as his car gets right next to mine he starts to do a doughnut. He is spinning out of control and he is about to hit us head on. I have one choice. I swerve the Cutlass onto the oncoming traffic to the left on La Grange Road.

Again, the Gods were with me as for some reason there were no cars in the oncoming lane. If there were I would have slammed into it head on. If I had not pulled off the maneuver for sure my brother in the passenger seat would have been sent airborne through the windshield. (Of course neither one of us were wearing seat belts.) I had no time to think I just reacted. The car behind me was not so lucky and smacked right into the Mustang. If I had been in my Skylark I am not sure I could have pulled off that move.

A deer at 4 AM – Back in the days when I was dating Jenny, I would often fall asleep on her couch. She was 17 or 18 at the time and of course I was not permitted to stay over at her house. Jenny’s mom usually crashed around 9 PM and her step-dad worked weird hours and would get home around 5 AM. On several occasions, I had him wake me up as he got home and I had passed out and would get a lecture about how I was not permitted to stay the night.

So, my goal was to not fall asleep at her house and if I did to be out of there before her step-dad got home from work. One night I wake up on the couch and sure enough it is four in the morning. I realize I better get the hell out of Dodge. I proceed to put my shoes on in my groggy early 20’s haze and head out the door to go home where I can go back to sleep.

I was driving my 1978 yellow Chevy Nova. This was about as basic of a car as you could get. I paid $250 for it and in all honesty that may have been overpriced. The window didn’t roll down and the heat didn’t work. But, it got me from point A to point B. I didn’t dare take that car on La Grange road, so I headed down 88th avenue to my house in Willow Springs.

It was a somewhat foggy night out and visibility was low. I am cruising down the two lane road when out of nowhere a deer just darts right out in front of my car. I immediately slammed on the rather worn out brakes of my Nova. I wound up missing hitting the deer head on at 40 MPH by about a millimeter. To be honest I still don’t know how I missed him. I was dead tired, the car’s brakes were shit and it was foggy out. This deer darted from the left faster than a greyhound from out of nowhere. To say I was lucky to have missed it would be an understatement.

Nick's Oscar History

The Oscars are pretty much like a 11th grade student class president election. It is a popularity contest. With that in mind I will go over the Oscars for the last 20 years excluding 2009 as I still haven’t seen Slumdog Millionaire. (I know, I know I will eventually sit down and watch it.)

2008 Winner – No Country for Old Men:
Nick’s Winner – No Country for Old Men – It is rare I agree with the academy but this is one case where they got it right. With that said, There Will Be Blood is an excellent film that in any other year would and should have won.

2007 Winner – The Departed
Nick’s Winner – United 93 – I don’t have a huge gripe here as I like the Departed. But, it is a remake of a Hong Kong film and not in my top 5 of Scorsese pictures. United 93 is a film making achievement. It is a very difficult movie to watch but, an incredible movie.

2006 Winner – Crash
Nick’s Winner – Hustle and Flow – I am in vast minority but, I really didn’t like Crash. I thought it was alright but in no way was it Oscar worthy. Hustle and Flow didn’t even get nominated and that is a shame. In what was a pretty weak year (And, yes I saw Brokeback Mountain and found it really, really boring) Hustle and Flow was my favorite. But there is no way the Academy is going to let a film with basically an all black cast win best picture.

2005 Winner – Million Dollar Baby
Nick’s Winner – Spider Man 2 – First off, Million Dollar Baby in my book is not a good movie. There were a couple of scenes I dug, but I saw that ending coming a mile away. I am not a huge Clint guy so that may be part of it. 2005 did not have a lot of great movies come out. I liked Sideways even if it was a tad pretentious. Spiderman 2 is probably my favorite super hero film ever. Even with Kirsten Dunst trying her best to ruin it, the movie still works.

2004 Winner – The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King
Nick’s Winner – American Splendor – Again, I know I am in the minority but, I just didn’t like the Lord of the Rings series. It just isn’t my bag. The irony is I love everything else Peter Jackson has ever done. American Splendor is a movie I could watch again and again. Paul Giamatti didn’t get nominated and that is a crime.

2003 Winner – Chicago
Nick’s Winner – 28 Days Later – Much like The Lord of the Rings, Chicago is just not my cup of tea. 2003 wasn’t a banner year for cinema. 28 Days Later is a movie that the Academy would never nominate. I don’t care, this film was just great edge of your seat from beginning to end.

2002 Winner – A Beautiful Mind
Nick’s winner – Mulholland Drive – This is one of the biggest travesties of them all. A Beautiful Mind didn’t suck but, it wasn’t anything great either. Mulholland Drive didn’t even get nominated and that is a crock of shit. I stated it a couple of weeks ago that it was my favorite film of the decade and it still is.

2001 Winner – Gladiator
Nick’s Winner – Traffic – Gladiator is simply not a good movie. It doesn’t hold up and frankly I found it really, really bad and a little silly. Traffic on the other hand, still holds up 9 years later. So, many different stories inside the film and they are all rich and interesting.

2000 Winner – American Beauty
Nick’s Winner – Being John Malkovich – I liked American Beauty. Can’t say I loved it, but it is a good movie. However, Being John Malkovich is still one of my favorites. I can honestly say after watching that film that I had never seen anything like it before. It was so out there and yet it worked.

1999 Winner – Shakespeare in Love
Nick’s Winner – Saving Private Ryan – This is one of the biggest blunders of them all. Shakespeare in Love was a nice little movie that no one has thought about since 1999. Saving Private Ryan was a masterpiece of filmmaking. And you are talking about someone that isn’t the biggest Tom Hanks fan. How anyone could watch those 2 films and say Shakespeare in Love is better is beyond me.

1998 Winner – Titanic
Nick’s Winner – L.A. Confidential – I am on record for my dislike of Titanic. I found it to be a bloated way too long love story that happened to be set on the Titanic. L.A. Confidential is a movie I could watch 1,000 times and still never get sick of it. It’s a great crime story with a film noir kind of feel to it that was made so much better with a great cast.

1997 Winner – The English Patient
Nick’s Winner – Fargo – Is anyone going to even try to argue that The English Patient is a better movie then Fargo? Try not falling asleep watching The English Patient, I dare you.

1996 Winner – Braveheart
Nick’s Winner – Twelve Monkeys – Braveheart and Gladiator might be my 2 least favorite films to win in the last 25 years. I am on record as a huge fan of the Terry Gilliam picture Twelve Monkeys. It was the first time I said to myself you know what Brad Pitt, isn’t a bad actor after all. 96 had a lot of good movies come out. Leaving Las Vegas, Casino, The Usual Suspects and Nixon were all better films then Braveheart.

1995 Winner – Forrest Gump
Nick’s Winner – The Shawshank Redemption – 95 had a ton of good nominees. I have been steadfast on my dislike for Forrest Gump. I know I am in the minority and that’s ok. Pulp Fiction also came out that year and that is also a great film. But sorry, I don’t want to meet the person who didn’t like Shawshank.

1994 Winner – Schindler’s List
Nick’s Winner - Schindler’s List – Spielberg created such a moving film that it is hard to argue. But, I have to give a shout out to Short Cuts, the Altman film that I absolutely love and in any other year would have gotten my vote.

1993 Winner – Unforgiven
Nick’s Winner – Glengarry Glen Ross – Now, I like Unforgiven and don’t have much of an issue with it winning. But for my money Glengarry Glen Ross is one of my favorites. An amazing cast that is just killing it with Mamet’s script. I think I know every line of dialogue in that film.

1992 Winner – The Silence of the Lambs
Nick’s Winner – The Silence of the Lambs – This is one of only 2 films to “sweep” the awards. Best picture, best director, best actor and best actress all came from Silence of the Lambs. Barton Fink is a movie I really love but cannot argue with academy on this one.

1991 Winner – Dances with Wolves
Nick’s Winner – Goodfellas – This is one of the mind bogglers of all time. This was when I knew the Oscar’s were a joke. Goodfellas is a masterpiece. It gets better each and every time I watch it. I know others disagree but in my mind this is Scorsese’s best work. Dances with Wolves is a boring time period piece that for some reason the academy has always loved.

1990 Winner – Driving Mrs. Daisy
Nick’s Winner – Do the Right Thing – Do the Right Thing didn’t even get nominated. How is that possible? I remember walking out of the theatre after watching it and being visibly effected. I knew I had just seen a masterpiece. Driving Mrs. Daisy is a maudlin film that pulls at the heart strings, in my mind ineffectively.

1989 Winner – Rain Man
Nick’s Winner – Die Hard – I know there is no way on God’s green earth that Die Hard would ever win an Oscar. But, I have to ask, why is that? Was a Die Hard a great film, I think so. They say the biggest form of flattery is imitation and there have been a million rip offs of Die Hard. From beginning to end that movie kept you on the edge of your seat. Rain Man is not a bad movie despite Tom Cruise being in it. But if you are at home and HBO is showing Die Hard and Showtime is showing Rain Man, which movie are you watching? I thought so.